“How many people displaced in Abyei, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile?” |
Eric Reeves, 16 October 2011 .
The question seems never to be asked with an aggregated figure as the statistical goal; and this is no doubt mainly because figures are so difficult to come by from disinterested parties. The Khartoum regime has denied all access to all three areas, including for assessment purposes. But there are indications that the total may be as great as 1 million civilians
 The UN estimates that approximately 110,000 Dinka Ngok were displaced following the May 20 invasion by the regime’s Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Misseriya militia allies.
 SPLA/M-North leader in South Kordofan, Abdel Aziz el-Hilu, estimated at the end of June on the basis of collated district data, that 500,000 people had been displaced in South Kordofan. While it is very likely that this number was high at the time, substantial displacement has continued for the past three months a reasonable range might be 300,000 – 500,000.
 Recently, Malik Agar, the elected governor of Blue Nile, has indicated that he believes half of Blue Nile’s population of 1.2 million is on the move because of bombing, shelling, and other SAF military activity. This translates into 600,000 people (the UN confirms that some 30,000 people have already fled Blue Nile for neighboring Ethiopia), and the exodus appears to be accelerating. There is no other estimate of the number of displaced persons, and thus no way of establishing a range of competing figures.
Even so, it takes little statistical imagination or arithmetic skill to see that a figure as high as 1 million may be a reasonable rough estimate.
It must be borne in mind as well that more than 2 million Darfuris remain displaced from their homes eight years after genocidal counter-insurgency began in the region.